For the upcoming holiday season, Bain and Co. is forecasting 3% nominal growth versus the 5.1% 10-year average, with 90% of growth coming from non-store sales.
The management consulting firm is forecasting 1% real dollar (inflation adjusted) growth for the 2023 holiday season versus the 5.4% 10-year average.
Total holiday sales will hit $913 billion, Bain forecasts, with a roughly the same proportion of store to non-store sales, at 70% and 30%, respectively, as compared to the 2022 season.
Intention to spend for the holidays has slipped among upper- and middle-income households but gained slightly between August of last year and the same month this year. Across all income groups, consumers are a bit more wary about using debt to finance holiday purchases.
In its advice to businesses, Bain suggests getting out with holiday programs early, leading with value messages, stressing positive common values with customers, acting fast on AI to personalize offerings and improve customer service, using stores to support profitable online growth via shipping, returns and trials, and putting unit sales and profits above price increases.
