The National Retail Federation reported a record 200.4 million consumers shopped during the five-day holiday weekend from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, surpassing last year’s record of 196.7 million.

The annual Thanksgiving Day-through-Cyber Monday shopping survey from NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics demonstrated results surpassed an initial expectation of 182 million shoppers.

Over the weekend, 121.4 million consumers visited physical retail locations, a figure close to the 122.7 million in 2022. Online shoppers totaled 134.2 million, up from 130.2 million in 2022. 

Black Friday continued its streak as the most popular day for in-store shopping, with 76.2 million consumers opting to visit brick-and-mortar locations, up from 72.9 million in 2022. About 59 million consumers shopped in stores during the Saturday after Thanksgiving, down from 63.4 million in the year earlier. On par with last year, 78% of patrons shopped specifically for Small Business Saturday. Black Friday was also the most popular day for online shopping, continuing a trend that began in 2019, NRF pointed out. Roughly 90.6 million consumers shopped digitally on Black Friday, up from 87.2 million in 2022. About 73 million consumers shopped online on Cyber Monday, down slightly from 77 million in the previous year.  

About 44 million consumers used their home desktop or laptop to shop online on Cyber Monday, on par with 2022, NRF determined. Another 40.5 million shopped online using mobile devices, down from a record 45.7 million in 2022 but still above pre-pandemic levels.  

Top destinations for Thanksgiving weekend shoppers were online platforms, at 44%; grocery stores and supermarkets, at 42%; department stores, at 40%; clothing and accessories stores, at 36%; and electronics stores, at 29%.

Thanksgiving weekend saw 95% of shoppers making holiday-related purchases, down from 97% last year but in line with historical levels, NRF maintained. Consumers spent $321.41 on average on such items, similar to the $325.44 spent in 2022, with 70%, or $226.55, going to gifts.

Top gifts bought during the five-day period were clothing and accessories, purchased by 49%; toys, 31%; gift cards, 25%; books, video games and other media, 23%; and personal care or beauty items, 23%.

Consumers reported, on average, 55% of their Thanksgiving weekend purchasing was specifically driven by sales and promotions, up from 52% in 2022. Another 31% said limited-time sales and promotions prompted them to make a purchase even if they had been hesitant about it, up from 29% last year. Pre-Black Friday, 55% of consumers took advantage of early holiday sales and promotions, NRF indicated, with 35% shopping specifically in the week leading up to Thanksgiving.  

As of Thanksgiving weekend, 85% of consumers had started holiday shopping, and 48% were about halfway done with holiday shopping by the weekend, numbers consistent with the previous year. 

NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31, and it previously forecast that holiday spending will reach record levels and grow between 3% and 4%, $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion. 

“The five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday represents some of the busiest shopping days of the year and reflects the continued resilience of consumers and strength of the economy,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Shoppers exceeded our expectations with a robust turnout. Retailers large and small were prepared to deliver safe, convenient and affordable shopping experiences with the products and services consumers needed, and at great prices.”

Prosper’s Phil Rist,  executive vice president, strategy, added, “Over the course of the weekend, consumers were able to find great deals on holiday gifts and other items they wanted. This year is the first time personal care and beauty items were among the top five most popular gifts purchased over Thanksgiving weekend, with nearly one-quarter of shoppers purchasing these items.”

The National Retail Federation estimates 182 million people are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year.

In this year’s survey, 74% of holiday shoppers said they planned to visit physical and virtual stores during the five-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend period, up from 69% in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, NRF indicated. The main reasons consumers plan to shop during the period include the deals are too good to pass up, at 61%, and because of tradition, at 28%.

Black Friday continues to be the most popular day to shop, with 72% of consumers planning to shop, up from 69% in 2022. Cyber Monday comes in second, with 39% of those who anticipate shopping over the weekend planning to do so on the date, on par with 38% last year.

NRF has forecast holiday spending is likely to reach record levels during November and December, growing between 3% and 4% and totaling $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion. The holiday sales total in 2022 reached $929.5 billion. NRF expects holiday spending in 2023 to pace the average annual holiday growth of 3.6%, as occurred from 2010 to 2019.

Similar to the past few years, NRF noted that 59% of holiday shoppers started browsing and buying for the holidays as of early November to get a head start on their seasonal purchasing. On average, holiday shoppers completed a quarter of their planned purchases during the first few days of November.

Gifts are the purchases shoppers are most likely to have made so far, with 48% of holiday shoppers having purchased gifts so far this season. Another 18% said they’ve purchased decorations, and 17% said they’ve purchased gifts for themselves. 

The five-day Thanksgiving holiday promotional period will include some of the busiest shopping days of the year, NRF maintained, despite earlier excursions.

“Early shopping is a trend we have been tracking for several years, and this year, there is evidence the deals and promotions from October resonated with consumers,” said Phil Rist, Prosper Insights & Analytics executive vice president of strategy.  “More than 40% of shoppers say they took advantage of retailers’ October sales to shop specifically for holiday gifts, décor and other seasonal items.”

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said, “The Thanksgiving holiday weekend marks some of the busiest shopping days of the year, as consumers enjoy the tradition of shopping for the perfect gifts for friends and loved ones. Retailers have been preparing for months for this occasion. They are stocked and ready to help customers find the gifts and other items they want at great prices during the entire holiday season.”

The National Retail Federation said today that retail sales continued to push forward in September even as consumers faced continuing economic pressures.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales – based on Census Bureau figures but excluding automobile dealer, gasoline station and restaurant results to focus on core retail – had September up 0.5% seasonally adjusted from August and 2.2% unadjusted year over year. In August, sales were up 0.2% month over month and 3.6% year over year.

On a three-month moving average, NRF’s numbers were up 3.1% unadjusted year-over-year as of September and 3.7% for the first nine months of the year.

As to sales by channel, according to NRF:

• General merchandise stores were up 0.4% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3% unadjusted year over year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were unchanged month over month seasonally adjusted but down 6.5% unadjusted year over year.
• Building materials and garden supply stores were down 0.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 6.5% unadjusted year over year.
• Health and personal care stores were up 0.8% month over month seasonally adjusted and 7.3% unadjusted year over year.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.8% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.5% unadjusted year over year.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.4% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.1% unadjusted year over year.
• Sporting goods stores were unchanged month over month seasonally adjusted but down 1.6% unadjusted year over year.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 0.8% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 0.8% unadjusted year over year.
• Online and other non-store sales were up 1.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 6.2% unadjusted year over year.

“September retail sales show that consumers have retained the ability and willingness to spend despite accumulating economic headwinds from higher interest rates and slowing growth,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in announcing the sales results. “As we gear up for the holiday season, we expect moderate growth to continue as consumers focus on value and household priorities. Retailers have been hard at work getting holiday inventories in place to provide consumers with great products, competitive prices and convenience at every opportunity.”

NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “The consumer is still healthy, and today’s report shows households are forging ahead with plenty of buying power despite persistent inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical conflicts. Firm payroll growth over the past few months has likely helped spending across retail sectors. However, much of the rise was due to car sales, gasoline prices and food services. When you exclude those categories and look at core retail as measured by NRF, the pace of year-over-year growth is slowing.”

The United Parcel Service has announced that it had reached a tentative collective bargaining agreement with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which represents about 330,000 UPS employees in the United States.

The five-year agreement covers U.S. Teamsters-represented employees in small-package roles. It is subject to a vote and ratification by union members. It provides for higher pay for full and part-time workers and changes in work rules, including to mandatory overtime requirements, and standards.

“Together we reached a win-win-win agreement on the issues that are important to Teamsters leadership, our employees and to UPS and our customers,” said Carol Tomé, UPS CEO, in announcing the settlement. “This agreement continues to reward UPS’s full- and part-time employees with industry-leading pay and benefits while retaining the flexibility we need to stay competitive, serve our customers and keep our business strong.”

The Teamsters had a different perspective on the agreement.

“Rank-and-file UPS Teamsters sacrificed everything to get this country through a pandemic and enabled UPS to reap record-setting profits,” said Teamsters general president Sean O’Brien. “Teamster labor moves America. The union went into this fight committed to winning for our members. We demanded the best contract in the history of UPS, and we got it. UPS has put $30 billion in new money on the table as a direct result of these negotiations. We’ve changed the game, battling it out day and night to make sure our members won an agreement that pays strong wages, rewards their labor, and doesn’t require a single concession. This contract sets a new standard in the labor movement and raises the bar for all workers.”

The National Retail Federation, which had issued cautions about the economic and sector effects of a UPS strike, responded to the agreement, with president and CEO Matthew Shay, saying, “UPS is a major partner of the retail industry, and we are grateful it came to an agreement with the Teamsters without disruption to the marketplace. The timing of this agreement is critical for consumers and families during the peak back-to-school shopping season. Retailers rely on stability within their supply chains, and this agreement will bring long-term stability, as well as assurance to the millions of businesses and employees who rely on smooth and efficient last-mile delivery.”

Retail sales rose in June even as employment grew more slowly, according to the National Retail Federation.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – had June up 0.4% from May and 3.3% unadjusted year over year. May gained 0.4% month over month and 4.4% year over year. NRF’s calculation was up 3.1% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average as of May and 4% for the year’s first six months

By channel, NRF maintained, June sales came in at:

• General merchandise stores down 0.1% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.4% unadjusted year over year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores up 1.4% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 3.6% unadjusted year over year.
• Building materials and garden supply stores down 1.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.7% unadjusted year over year.
• Health and personal care stores up 0.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 6.6% unadjusted year over year.
• Electronics and appliance stores up 1.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 1.8% unadjusted year over year.
• Grocery and beverage stores down 0.7% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.3% unadjusted year over year.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores up 0.6% month over month seasonally adjusted and 1.3% unadjusted year over year.
• Sporting goods stores down 1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 0.9% unadjusted year over year.
• Online and other non-store sales up 1.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and 9.9% unadjusted year over year.

“June retail sales confirm that while the economy may be cooling, consumers remain on solid footing and are spending on household priorities,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay, in announcing the sales figures. “Back-to-class spending is one of the most important shopping occasions of the year, and NRF’s consumer research shows that back-to-school and college spending is expected to set new records. Consumers are looking for the best value and deals, and retailers are well stocked with essential items for families and students.”

NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “The pace of spending is slower, but consumers are still in control of the direction of the economy thanks to the still-growing labor market and a comfortable cushion of savings. Jobs aren’t growing as fast as they were, but employment is by no means in a slump, and if consumers have jobs, they have the willingness to spend. On average, consumer balance sheets remain sturdy, and they have the wherewithal to support spending for most of the rest of the year. That’s thanks, in part, to excess savings built up during the pandemic along with easing inflation.”

According to a survey released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights and Analytics, consumers will spend record amounts for back-to-school and back-to-college shopping this year.

As of early July, 55% of consumers who are buying for back-to-class time said they had already started shopping, consistent with 2022 behavior but up from 44% in 2019. The result is in line with a consumer trend to shop earlier for major spending events, NRF noted. Still, as of early July, 85% of back-to-school shoppers said they still have at least half of their purchasing left to make.

Families with children in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $890.07 on back-to-school items this year, the survey determined, about $25 more than last year’s record of $864.35. In merchandise terms, 69% of back-to-school shoppers expect to purchase electronics or other computer-related accessories this year, up from 65% in 2022, and the highest in the survey’s history. Total spending on electronics should reach a record $15.2 billion, the survey forecast. By segment, consumers plan to purchase laptops, at 51%, tablets at 36%, and calculators, at 29%. 

College students and their families plan to spend an average of $1,366.95 per person, the survey demonstrated, up from $1,199.43 last year and more than the previous record total of $1,200.32 in 2021. Since 2019, NRF asserted, back-to-college spending has almost doubled.

Among those surveyed who are set to spend more this year than last, 43% said it is because they need more new items, up from 32% in the year past, while another 32% attribute it to needing more big-ticket items such as a computer, phone, calculator or dorm furnishings. Spending on big-ticket items such as electronics and furnishings as well as such necessities as food accounts for more than half of the increase in total 2023 back-to-college spending. 

For back-to-class shoppers in general, the top shopping destinations are online, department stores and discount stores, the survey related.

“Back-to-class shopping is one of the most important consumer shopping occasions of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in announcing the survey results. “Our research for 2023 shows American consumers are eager to jumpstart their back-to-school and college purchases early. Retailers have been preparing for months to ensure they are well stocked with essential items that families and students need for the school year.”

Prosper executive vp of strategy Phil Rist added, “Even though consumers plan to spend more on school and college-related items this year, they are still looking to find the best value and deals. Consumers are stretching their dollars by comparing prices, considering off-brand or store-brand items, and are more likely to shop at discount stores than last year.”

The National Retail Federation has stated retail sales rose again in May as consumers continued to spend despite economic challenges.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to capture core retail results, had May up 0.4% from April and 4.4% unadjusted year over year. In April, sales were up 0.6% month over month and 1.4% year over year. NRF’s numbers increased 3% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average as of May. Sales advanced 4.2% year over year for the first five months of the year.

By channel, NRF pointed out:

• General merchandise stores were up 0.4% month over month seasonally adjusted and 1.7% unadjusted year over year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.4% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 4.5% unadjusted year over year.
• Building materials and garden supply stores were up 2.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 1.9% unadjusted year over year.
• Health and personal care stores were flat month over month seasonally adjusted but up 9.7% unadjusted year over year.
• Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.2% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 4.1% unadjusted year over year.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.7% unadjusted year over year.
• Sporting goods stores were up 0.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.5% unadjusted year over year.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were flat month over month seasonally adjusted but down 0.2% unadjusted year over year.
• Online and other non-store sales were up 0.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and 8.7% unadjusted year over year.

“Consumers continued to spend on household priorities in May, supported by gains in the job market and wages,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said, in announcing the sales figures. “Retailers recognize the ongoing pressure on cost-sensitive consumers and are offering competitive pricing, a wide product mix and convenient shopping options to help stretch family budgets.”

NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz added. “This was a positive report with no sign of an abruptly slowing economy despite what has happened with inflation and interest rate pressures. Even though shoppers dialed back in some categories on a year-over-year basis, these numbers confirm that consumers still have the capacity to spend. Job growth and wages are providing buoyancy, although inflation continues to take a bite out of consumer income. May is typically a strong month for retail as spring shopping hits its peak, but above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation no doubt played a favorable role.”

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.

Organized retail crime is becoming a more serious issue as affirmed in an onstage discussion between John Furner, Walmart U.S. CEO and National Retail Federation board chairman, and Matthew Shay, NRF CEO, at the organization’s annual security conference.

At NRF Protect last week in Grapevine, TX, Furner and Shay discussed the importance of collaboration in addressing retail security issues in general and organized retail crime in particular.

The retail industry is subject to society-wide security issues that affect the sector as well, Furner noted. When it comes to security, one key shared issue is the increasing sophistication of criminal organizations.

Furner pointed out, “The complexity in the environment has changed pretty considerably over the last three decades. But the amount of retail crime we are seeing across the country has increased pretty precipitously over the last three to four years. The sophistication of the bad actors, the threat actors, has also increased. The solution is a combination of talent, tools, technology and coalitions of industry, society and government, all working together to solve this issue.”

ORC growth and persistence have become more evident anecdotally and quantifiably, Shay said, noting that NRF research determined that organized retail crime cost retailers $95 billion dollars in 2022 up from $90 billion in 2021. He added that organized retail crime is “a really acute challenge. This is about the safety and health of customers and of communities, and certainly of those millions and millions of associates and team members and partners that work across the retail industry.”

Furner called ORC “a threat to all companies and all members that we serve. I’d encourage everyone to, when possible, share the data so that we can work together to get ahead of some of these issues.”

Shay pointed out that progress had been made in terms of winning legislative aid in dealing with ORC but the work continues. NRF, the International Housewares Association and other organizations as well as many major retailers backed the Inform Act, which requires online marketplaces to verify the identity of high-volume sellers operating on their platforms so as to identify and deter fences who sell the merchandise stolen in ORC operations. The next step is to develop a centralized clearing house for information on retail crime at the Federal level of government to get a better picture of ORC operations that cross state and international borders and coordinate means to combat the ongoing problem.

“Last year, we were able to get the Inform Act across the finish line,” Shay said. “And the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, which we’re now working very aggressively to get through Congress, will give Federal agencies the authority to convene and collaborate and distribute resources to law enforcement agencies across the country to the areas that need it.”

In a flash poll taken of participants at NRF Protect, 86% of respondents said that ORC has more of a threat to their businesses versus three years ago, with 12% saying the same and only 1% saying less.

More than 2,000 security and related operations professionals attended NRF Protect, the organization stated, where loss prevention, asset protection, digital fraud and cyber risk communities, were among the key topics.

Retail sales regained momentum in April with both month-over-month and year-over-year growth, according to the National Retail Federation.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail, had April up 0.6% from March and 2% unadjusted year over year. In March, core retail sales slipped 0.7% month over month but gained 3.4% year over year. NRF’s sales numbers advanced 3.7% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average as of April.

By channel, sales results were:

• General merchandise stores up 0.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and 4.1% unadjusted year over year. 
• Furniture and home furnishings stores down 0.7% month over month seasonally adjusted and 8.8% unadjusted year over year
• Building materials and garden supply stores up 0.5% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 5.7% unadjusted year over year
• Health and personal care stores up 0.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and 5.8% unadjusted year over year
• Electronics and appliance stores down 0.5% month over month seasonally adjusted and 8.2% unadjusted year over year
• Grocery and beverage stores down 0.2% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.9% unadjusted year over year
• Sporting goods stores down 3.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and 9.1% unadjusted year over year
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores down 0.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and 4.1% unadjusted year over year
• Online and other non-store sales up 1.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 6.4% unadjusted year over year.

In announcing the sales results, NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said, “Retail sales rebounded in April, reflecting consumer resilience in the face of elevated economic uncertainty. Moderating price levels, continued labor market strength and wage gains have increased consumers’ ability to spend. However, they remain cautious and concerned about the current economic environment. Retailers continue to provide competitive pricing and convenience to help cost-sensitive consumers stretch their budgets.”

NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers remained engaged in April. Shoppers are being selective and price-sensitive, but we continue to expect that spending will see modest gains through the course of the year. Year-over-year growth slowed, which was partly because of upward revisions to last year’s data but also an early indication that credit conditions are tightening and excess savings are shrinking.”

As inflation eased at winter’s end, retail sales slowed in March, but spending was still higher than at the same time last year, according to the National Retail Federation.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail, had March down 0.5% from February but up 4.6% unadjusted year over year. In February, sales advanced 0.5% month over month and 6.7% year over year. As of March, NRF’s sales figures were up 6% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average.

NRF is forecasting 2023 retail sales growth between 4% and 6% versus 2022.

By retail channel, NRF noted, March results were: 

• General merchandise stores down 3% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.9% unadjusted year over year
• Furniture and home furnishings stores down 1.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 1.9% unadjusted year over year
• Building materials and garden supply stores down 2.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 4.3% unadjusted year over year
• Electronics and appliance stores down 2.1% month over month seasonally adjusted and 9.9% unadjusted year over year
• Health and personal care stores up 0.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and 7.3% unadjusted year over year
• Grocery and beverage stores down 0.1% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.6% unadjusted year over year
• Sporting goods stores up 0.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.3% unadjusted year over year
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores down 1.7% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.2% unadjusted year over year
• Online and other non-stores up 1.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and 12.4% unadjusted year over year

“Retail sales moderated in March after posting strong gains in the first two months of the year,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in announcing the numbers. “Continued easing of inflation and the overall strength of the job market and wages are keeping the fundamentals of the consumer economy strong and should support their ability to spend on household priorities through 2023. Retailers recognize the pressure on consumers from increased prices in services and experiences, and the impact of higher interest rates, and are prioritizing product mix, competitive pricing and convenience to help consumers stretch their budgets.”

NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “March spending reversed the strong pace of core retail sales we saw earlier this year. These results reflect both slower economic activity and lower prices because of easing inflation, which means fewer dollars spent even if consumers buy the same number of goods, but there is still a lot of spending in the economy. Keep in mind that households tend to shop less during the post-holiday season. In addition, tax refunds typically contribute to spending at this time of year but are smaller this year than last. Nonetheless, we are still looking at positive sales growth moving forward in 2023.”